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AR30453: Engineering risk and uncertainty

[Page last updated: 09 August 2024]

Academic Year: 2024/25
Owning Department/School: Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
Credits: 6 [equivalent to 12 CATS credits]
Notional Study Hours: 120
Level: Honours (FHEQ level 6)
Period:
Semester 2
Assessment Summary: EXOB 100%
Assessment Detail:
  • Open Book Exam (EXOB 100%)
Supplementary Assessment:
Like-for-like reassessment (where allowed by programme regulations)
Requisites: Before taking this module you must take AR20386 OR take AR20526
Learning Outcomes:
* Ability to understand and apply basic probability theory for problems involving variability and uncertainty
* Ability to use basic statistical methods for exploratory data analysis, model identification, parameter estimation and decision-making
* Ability to apply both analytical and numerical methods for describing the reliability of infrastructure with examples from geotechnical, structural and hydraulic engineering.
* Gain knowledge of how best to communicate of risk and uncertainty to both lay people and engineering experts.


Aims: To provide students with knowledge and understanding of how to use probability and statistical methods to analyse civil engineering problems involving geotechnical, hydraulic and structural analysis.

Skills: Intellectual skills:
* Understanding probability and statistical concepts and their relevance for civil engineering design
* Understanding of decision-making under uncertainty
Practical skills:
* Use of analytical and numerical methods for analysing civil engineering problems
* Statistical programming and data analysis in R language
Transferable skills
* Quantitative data analysis using statistical techniques
* Communication of risk-related topics.

Content:
* Random variables and probability distributions
* Parameter estimation (method of moments, maximum-likelihood)
* Sample theory and hypothesis testing
* Uncertainty analysis: First order analytical method and Monte Carlo methods
* Low probability - high impact events (black swans)
* Decision-making under uncertainty
* Communication of risk.

Course availability:

AR30453 is Optional on the following courses:

Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering
  • UEAR-AFB11 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKB07 : BEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UEAR-AFB12 : BEng(Hons) Structural and Architectural Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKM03 : MEng(Hons) Civil and Architectural Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UEAR-AFM11 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering (Year 3)
  • UEAR-AKM07 : MEng(Hons) Civil Engineering with Year long work placement (Year 4)
  • UEAR-AFM12 : MEng(Hons) Structural and Architectural Engineering (Year 3)

Notes:

  • This unit catalogue is applicable for the 2024/25 academic year only. Students continuing their studies into 2025/26 and beyond should not assume that this unit will be available in future years in the format displayed here for 2024/25.
  • Courses and units are subject to change in accordance with normal University procedures.
  • Availability of units will be subject to constraints such as staff availability, minimum and maximum group sizes, and timetabling factors as well as a student's ability to meet any pre-requisite rules.
  • Find out more about these and other important University terms and conditions here.